Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 1003.359908 1148.457449 1314.735055 1521.072414 1772.612273 2072.388774 2.461398e+03
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 782.428678 960.094169 1184.103973 1493.415362 1919.578100 2502.197351 3.389248e+03
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 690.147939 883.245572 1141.506302 1523.503298 2095.129618 2956.903549 4.438741e+03
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 630.211267 835.227125 1123.414187 1575.947286 2305.440065 3511.161211 5.851300e+03
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 576.424116 785.366434 1091.019061 1595.169926 2460.810519 4012.414029 7.383002e+03
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 524.879552 731.059403 1042.500139 1577.372587 2545.945500 4409.274914 8.897243e+03
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 492.660641 701.157534 1026.251879 1607.782691 2720.334426 5028.412592 1.127000e+04
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 449.105341 648.782815 967.088941 1553.145202 2719.829575 5280.169751 1.285887e+04
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 413.715779 605.815752 918.294952 1509.195318 2730.394222 5559.747545 1.473126e+04
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 382.156388 566.184053 870.826842 1460.568953 2720.730918 5788.419605 1.662811e+04
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 372.661573 561.837994 883.363494 1528.408210 2980.010199 6804.162807 2.242566e+04
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 359.732560 550.419991 881.878510 1567.732672 3183.568210 7759.424057 2.929288e+04
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 343.980255 533.890643 871.297480 1591.097044 3367.047731 8789.132571 3.865457e+04
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 323.418866 507.463337 839.967823 1566.286283 3424.829174 9456.909253 4.754830e+04
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 311.569117 495.410654 834.456284 1597.191647 3641.192370 10827.424043 6.582310e+04
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 303.390789 489.247765 839.619339 1653.339339 3948.174671 12791.558289 9.905747e+04
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 292.197068 476.562806 830.353317 1673.751340 4156.117793 14516.247133 1.422346e+05
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 278.229676 457.630615 806.508092 1654.803085 4235.091600 15708.257748 1.892496e+05
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 270.012145 449.012565 803.213432 1687.209081 4497.415860 18140.299616 3.014557e+05
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 254.721609 425.752124 766.940484 1628.988005 4427.841984 18615.645165 3.688909e+05
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 241.538898 405.842629 736.367373 1582.185098 4389.682864 19293.439029 4.685586e+05
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 228.918172 386.348762 705.303902 1530.435084 4321.825969 19752.034068 5.820766e+05
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 226.678905 387.207946 718.795860 1602.641727 4755.776062 24349.627323 1.390207e+06